Well, since the first crusade its hard to find a time when the Middle East was not having a fight over religeon, tribal or the price of fish. It seems to be in the DNA of the place. Mind you thats the same for anywhere in this still very Tribal World. But lets stay with Syria for a speel. Fast forward to now and the fallout of the Arab Spring (whatever that was - and many will tell you) and he fiasco of Libya, I guess Syria is just another civil war we have discussed at considerable length. Naturally so screwed up is the whole middle east that it is now the bastion of as many conspiracy theories as it is fact for its current sad state.
Naturally Russian expansionism has its part to play. Putin - ever the GRU Colonel looks to expand his empire. And that makes perfect sense. For now with his hold on the main port of Ukerane and practical access to the black sea and from there access to the med. Naturally its only any good if her can negotiate the Bosporus and distabilising Turkey seems to be going splendidly. He of course is going for those twin dreams of Peter the great. Control of the Baltic and Med. In the Baltic he has placed short ranged Nukes on Kalingrad, increased submarine and aircraft activity around the region to an alarming rate which has put the wind up the Baltic states and Scandinavia. So much so that NATO has put a Baltic Air Patrol on active response footing. So, no change in Russia and back to the cold war, the war they love best.
In Syria, Obamas red line in the sand being a total joke in Syria now has emboldened the Kremlin to back Assad. Aim to control the main ports of Syria and build their first true base in the med. Directly opposite Cyprus. It is a very big dog pissing on Nato's trees. No more no less and because of a myriad failed attempts and incurrsions into the middle east public oppinion and the woeful state of our and Nato's armed forces means they will get away with it. Daesh, ISIS or as I like to call them a bunch of mad murdering scum continues to play at statehood and will do so while half the players are more intent on settling religious divides based on which prophet you like than fighting Isis. Kurdish YPG no doubt backed by KPandG will look after their little bit of land and I hope someday get a Kurdishtan state. They deserve it. Good luck to them, they are doing a fine job of looking after their own. Shame about Turkey mind.. but hey you cant beat and old foe for a good scrap can you and if anyone has good reason to hate Turkey its the Kurds and Armenians. Hey what Genocide?
Naturally, as with every other war its the poor bloody women and children who suffer. In this case that leads to more strain on a world with donor fatigue meaning even I would rather watch something else on TV. Plus lets face it every country now since the Berlin Wall came down has its own tribal and ethnic problems and leads to more fences going up, more isolationism and less welcome for those who most need it.
To make it even more of a International Cluster Fuck we have a moribund UN and the EU in crisis having discoverd that its a pretty good trading club, but an appallingly bad actual political european union and its joint foreign policy efforts bloody hopeless at best and more the problem than the cure at worst.
Of course expanding the view to a global one we have China gearing up to take on all commers in the south china seas and beyond. Japan looking a bit pale and North Korea being Nort Korean.
Nearer home half of Africa is now a failed continent and the population on the move to better pickings thanks to years of being propped up by the first world. Most Africans are now incapable of doing anything knowing if they do they might jeopardise the supply of second hand Nike trainers and football shirts. Likewise the leaders of half the countries could find a cash flow problem and have to invade the private Swiss Accounts to afford to re-plate the gold bath. Me Cynical? You bet. Seen it and was in the video.
All this with the Worlds Policeman (you know the one that has a war in order to learn Geography) is having and erection sorry election to find the best sex pest to put in the white house. Can you imagine the staff must be soo looking forward to being fired at/by Trump or the smell of Bills cigars in their Oval Office again! Lovely, if it was a film or a book you would switch over or chuck it in the bin. Hillary or Trump..... As Potus. Sorry Pointless.
Whats to do then? I am buggered if I know. I usually am a fairly pragmatic kind of chap and if I think about something long enough I can kind of get at least sanguine about it. But this world, here and now, is very much on the brink of getting seriously messed up. I mean very seriously indeed. There are sober people of fair mind who say it has already started.I think that may be a bit OTT. but only a bit mind you.
You could say that its 1937 and Hitler has his mind set on Czechoslovakia but we dont have a Churchill in the wings!
I hope NATO can keep up at least the right posture even if the British Army has less soldiers than a capacity crowd at Wembly! Like I said scary times. As someone wiser than me said "I pray for peace and prepare for war" Queitly not a bad idea.. Sadly!
Have a nice weekend.
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